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There is never an exact moment, Zemo will reflect on later, sitting on the cliff with the gun in his hand, when he decides to destroy the Avengers.
Not that it matters. But all he'll remember is holding a crushed, muddy stuffed bear in his hand, and knowing the Avengers will pay. And Steve Rogers and Tony Stark are the ones who'll pay the most for what they've done.
He doesn't know it'll take a year of research, surveillance and planning, but he never enjoyed idleness anyway. And after Sokovia, all he has left is time.
Initially, he has no plan at all beyond knowing his enemy, so he learns everything. There's no telling what scrap of information will be vital until you find it. No telling what lurks beneath the surface until you scratch.
Stark, of course, is all surface. Scratch anything at all and the man comes apart. His weaknesses are legendary and completely public, but his worst sin is self-hatred. It's astonishing that he hasn't killed himself by now, intentionally or not. Then again, wearing a robot and purposely looking for fights isn't the choice a man makes when he wants to live.
Finding what's beneath the shining veneer of Captain America is more difficult. Even then, it takes Zemo less than a month to know Steve Rogers is in love with James Barnes. It's so obvious, in fact, it makes him wonder how all the scholars who devoted their careers to the life of Captain America could have missed it, other than willful ignorance. It's in every interview: each crack of grief, every time he stops speaking so he won't cry. It's in every line of his foreword to Barnes' biography in 2013. It's in every picture and film of the two of them together. Zemo finds all of them.
Zemo's eulogy for his wife would sound very much the same, if he ever told it to anyone. He used to look at her like that too: as if her presence brought the sun.
All the pictures he had of her are buried beneath the rubble of his homeland.
Rogers' weakness is his self-righteousness; his stubbornness; his unwillingness to back down even when it's the only viable option. Weaknesses are useful, they can be exploited. But a man's weakness won't necessarily destroy him.
Rogers' destruction is James Buchanan Barnes.
A few weeks later, Zemo discovers that Barnes is Stark's destruction too. And now he has a plan.
He didn't intend for Barnes to actually be involved, but the Russian handler refuses to confirm Zemo's suspicions. Now he has to force Barnes into the open so he can be run to ground. It's the only way Zemo can be sure he'll be able to speak to him. A great deal of his plan now relies on that.
Zemo would like nothing better than to leave Barnes in peace, but he needs him.
He also needs something big enough to force Barnes into the open.
There is, of course, collateral damage when he bombs the Accords Conference. He didn't want the king of Wakanda to end up among the dead, but what's done is done.
It turns out to be a lucky accident, because the Black Panther joins the hunt. And now Zemo realizes just how useful Barnes will be. Maybe he should thank the Russian for his stubbornness.
If the Panther gets to Barnes first and kills him, Rogers will be in pain. If Stark gets to Barnes first and manages to capture him instead of killing him, Rogers will still be in pain. If Barnes is able to disappear again despite the worldwide search for him, Zemo will keep the fact he framed him secret. Being so close to his beloved Bucky only to lose him again, and then never knowing if Barnes is a true, willing murderer…well, that might hurt Rogers worst of all. His pain will spill over to the other Avengers, and they'll be crushed underneath it. No matter what happens, they're finished.
The best plans are the ones with multiple positive outcomes.
It's satisfying. But it's not enough. Zemo lost everything. How can he bear for Rogers and Stark to lose anything less than that?
He badly wants to make sure that Barnes is captured, but that part is, unfortunately, out of his hands. He can only wait and hope for the best.
Clearly he should have more faith in Captain America, because Barnes is brought in whole and alive, and exactly to where Zemo needs him.
He's glad he built the EM pulse generator after all.
He's prepared for the trigger words not to work, or to die before he finishes saying them. His plan will succeed either way, now.
No one will believe the Winter Soldier killed a man to prevent more deaths. Even when they find out the truth, another corpse will only prove how volatile he is. They'll lock him away forever, if they don't find some excuse to kill him outright. Either way Rogers will never see him again.
But Zemo wants to see the endgame. He wants that so badly he comes out from behind the desk, ignoring the extra second of safe distance it might give him to shout the words directly at Barnes while the man screams on the other side of the glass. Even then, Zemo can't ignore the guilty unease of what he's doing.
Of all of the collateral damage, Zemo feels worst about Barnes. None of this is his fault; he's as much a victim here as Zemo's wife and children.
It was easy, killing the handler. The Russian deserved far worse, given the suffering he helped inflict on an innocent man. It was gratifying, even, to take a bit of revenge on Barnes' behalf. The handler died in discomfort and fear. Zemo likes to think Barnes would appreciate that.
He never wanted to do Barnes any harm. He still doesn't, even as he shouts the last word and Barnes goes blank and compliant. Yet here they both are. Zemo already stole the man's freedom, and he's about to destroy his life. All as a means to an end.
He wishes it weren't necessary. He wishes none of this was necessary. It doesn't stop him. The Avengers killed his family, so they have to pay. And this is the only way they will.
Zemo's wife would hate this, if she knew what he was doing. But she's dead, and he's long since lost any reason to be a better man.
One thing he can say for Hydra: they made stunningly efficient assassins.
Not only does he get the information he wants, but Barnes is so destructive that Zemo escapes easily. He flies to Moscow without knowing how well Barnes succeeded in his rampage, but that's fine. Whatever the outcome, it'll be just fine.
If Barnes got away, he'll follow orders and return to Siberia on his own. Rogers and Stark will follow him. If Barnes is recaptured, he'll either be forced to reveal the existence of other Soldiers, or he'll do it on his own to help his cause. Stark will be sent to Siberia to assess the situation, or he'll track Rogers there when the man goes himself. Which he'll do, of course, to prevent the U.N. from getting their hands on them. All Zemo has to do is wait. Rogers and Stark will end up in Siberia eventually.
And if, impossibly, that doesn't happen, Zemo can always bring the information back himself. An anonymous package mailed to Stark International won't be as…climatic as he's hoping for, but it will work.
No matter what happens, he'll win.
Zemo's in Siberia when he sees the news about the battle at the airport. The damage is spectacular. Most of the Avengers are in custody, but the whereabouts of Captain America and the Winter Soldier are currently unknown.
Perfect.
The only question left is whether to order breakfast at the hotel he never checked out of, or do nothing and let the maid discover the body on her own. Stark will come to Siberia either way. He's not nearly as cunning as Zemo, but he's smart. Zemo's sure he'll be able to figure out where Rogers and Barnes are quickly enough. The only thing Zemo's unsure of is whether learning the truth about his parents' death will be worse if Stark arrives as Rogers' enemy, or as his friend.
As his friend, Zemo decides. Stark finding out he's wrong after the damage is done would be terrible, certainly. But learning that Barnes is innocent now will fuel Stark's rage. Never mind that it's self-directed; it will still get the result Zemo wants.
Frighten Stark enough and he gets angry. Anger Stark enough, and he lashes out without thinking. His most gruesome enemies have always been the ones he created himself. Zemo is just the last of many.
Stark will go to Siberia to help Rogers out of fear, but he's already angry. When Zemo shows him what the Winter Soldier did, Stark's rage will be incandescent. And he'll have two perfect targets, right there.
After all, Stark and Rogers gave Zemo a perfect target for his anger. Returning the favor is only fair.
Killing the sleeping Winter Soldiers is a mercy. He wishes he could give Barnes the same.
At least they'll both get their peace soon enough.
Stark hasn't stopped to think about how convenient the clues were that Zemo left for him. It's obvious, because he's just as shocked as Rogers and Barnes are to find Zemo waiting for them. Nor, apparently, does he realize it's a trap, even when the videotape begins playing. Zemo's a little surprised that Barnes and Rogers don't try to stop it, but maybe they can feel the same sense of inevitability. He brought them all here. This is the end of the line. All they can do now is see how it ends.
He thinks that Stark might be ashamed at how easily he was manipulated, or at least chagrined by the breathtaking violence of his response. It reminds Zemo more than a little of his children's tantrums. Only Iron Man's tantrum might kill Bucky Barnes.
Barnes might kill Stark first, of course, in self-defense. Or Rogers might martyr himself to save his love's conscience. Maybe Rogers, Stark and Barnes will kill each other; maybe they won't. None of them will leave here unharmed.
Zemo doesn't stay to watch. He's done everything he intended, except for one.
It's cold, but not too bad out here. He's used to this kind of weather and the fresh air is nice. There are far worse places to die, like the concrete and steel bunker right behind him. If he listens carefully he can just make out the brutal sounds of the three-man war.
He's not surprised that all he feels is distant satisfaction. He knew when he started this that he was using his revenge to avoid his grief. Now he won't have to feel anything at all.
The Black Panther following Barnes all the way to Siberia is the one variable Zemo didn't consider. But when T'Challa pulls the gun away, Zemo can't find it in himself to care.
The weedy politician is thrilled to tell Zemo how he failed, because he's in a box while Stark, Rogers and Barnes are still alive.
He can gloat all he wants. They're alive, yes. But the trust between Rogers and Stark is gone, along with their friendship. The Avengers are gone. Barnes is still a fugitive; now Rogers is too. And the red book is still somewhere out there, waiting for the wrong people to find it. The world will never be safe from Barnes and the evil he could be forced to do. Not unless he dies.
Rogers will spend the rest of his life trying to protect him. Maybe he'll manage it; maybe he won't. Maybe Stark will be the reason he doesn't.
Let the politician gloat all he wants.
Zemo didn't fail.
END